Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.540574 1.610734 1.683822 1.765913 1.855879 1.951862 2.062519
2026-01-25 1.432304 1.522630 1.619796 1.732836 1.861709 2.005275 2.179069
2026-02-01 1.366328 1.470635 1.585602 1.723068 1.884839 2.071658 2.307597
2026-02-08 1.312013 1.426050 1.554199 1.710884 1.900222 2.125754 2.421540
2026-02-15 1.265299 1.386351 1.524581 1.696801 1.909715 2.170359 2.524165
2026-02-22 1.235133 1.363553 1.512442 1.701336 1.940162 2.240686 2.663456
2026-03-01 1.188921 1.319252 1.471926 1.668061 1.919972 2.243266 2.710162
2026-03-08 1.152687 1.285203 1.441962 1.645767 1.911549 2.259324 2.775031
2026-03-15 1.123820 1.258784 1.419949 1.631927 1.912542 2.286916 2.857289
2026-03-22 1.114203 1.255276 1.425759 1.653367 1.960618 2.381236 3.046184
2026-03-29 1.108958 1.256699 1.437415 1.682414 2.019968 2.494986 3.277223
2026-04-05 1.088656 1.238468 1.423198 1.676232 2.029741 2.536827 3.396620
2026-04-12 1.072011 1.224832 1.414987 1.678524 2.052658 2.601510 3.565436
2026-04-19 1.042644 1.194133 1.383580 1.647860 2.026458 2.589044 3.597676
2026-04-26 1.023773 1.176308 1.368362 1.638675 2.030756 2.623885 3.718864
2026-05-03 1.005170 1.158278 1.352233 1.627435 2.031171 2.652151 3.830899
2026-05-10 0.986925 1.140210 1.335461 1.614536 2.028235 2.674403 3.933761
2026-05-17 0.976256 1.131648 1.330989 1.618625 2.050864 2.739935 4.132128
2026-05-24 0.953085 1.106182 1.303106 1.588287 2.019086 2.711344 4.130115
2026-05-31 0.934608 1.086522 1.282613 1.567938 2.001941 2.706757 4.179352
2026-06-07 0.919752 1.071330 1.267801 1.555295 1.996225 2.721480 4.273062
2026-06-14 0.917232 1.072362 1.275041 1.574865 2.042160 2.830423 4.600119
2026-06-21 0.917215 1.076656 1.286778 1.601350 2.100494 2.967036 5.027366